Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-23

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-13) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-13 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-13. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-13. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-13. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-13. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-13)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-13) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 72 (35 – 112) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 21 (5.6 – Inf)
Algeria 112 (60 – 161) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 42 (8.2 – Inf)
Argentina 123 (70 – 170) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 27 (7.7 – Inf)
Armenia 68 (30 – 104) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 19 (5.5 – Inf)
Australia 44 (7 – 78) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.5) -42 (5.8 – Inf)
Austria 79 (35 – 120) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -9.6 (80 – Inf)
Azerbaijan 48 (16 – 80) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -110 (6.8 – Inf)
Bahrain 69 (32 – 108) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -8.8 (87 – Inf)
Bangladesh 398 (320 – 468) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 12 (7.4 – 28)
Belarus 572 (479 – 656) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 17 (10 – 51)
Belgium 1221 (1102 – 1370) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -66 (93 – Inf)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 45 (11 – 74) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 550 (6.1 – Inf)
Brazil 2341 (2146 – 2497) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 55 (24 – Inf)
Cameroon 56 (25 – 84) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) 8 (3.7 – Inf)
Canada 1677 (1532 – 1824) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 36 (20 – 170)
Chile 391 (299 – 460) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -2100 (22 – Inf)
China 36 (5 – 63) Decreasing 0.5 (0.2 – 0.8) -4.9 (Inf – Inf)
Colombia 186 (127 – 243) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 20 (8.3 – Inf)
Cote dIvoire 58 (21 – 93) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 15 (4.4 – Inf)
Croatia 38 (8 – 67) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.4) -14 (7.6 – Inf)
Cuba 66 (26 – 102) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 28 (5.7 – Inf)
Czechia 136 (82 – 187) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 41 (8.6 – Inf)
Denmark 164 (109 – 211) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -65 (17 – Inf)
Djibouti 71 (36 – 108) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -43 (11 – Inf)
Dominican Republic 263 (175 – 360) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 36 (9.9 – Inf)
Ecuador 469 (376 – 543) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.1 – 22)
Egypt 169 (110 – 220) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 64 (11 – Inf)
Estonia 39 (8 – 76) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.8) 94 (4.2 – Inf)
Finland 133 (85 – 176) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 27 (8.3 – Inf)
France 1945 (1790 – 2119) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2112 (1952 – 2289) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -25 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 118 (71 – 156) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2) 7.8 (4.3 – 42)
Greece 59 (27 – 87) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 7.9 (3.6 – Inf)
Guinea 68 (28 – 103) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.8) 13 (4.7 – Inf)
Hungary 99 (49 – 143) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 27 (6.8 – Inf)
Iceland 45 (0 – 97) Unsure 1.9 (0.2 – 3.6) 40 (1.6 – Inf)
India 1384 (1224 – 1508) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 23 (15 – 53)
Indonesia 307 (236 – 371) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -81 (26 – Inf)
Iran 1328 (1178 – 1454) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -36 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 50 (16 – 83) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 11 (3.7 – Inf)
Ireland 498 (418 – 583) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Israel 241 (176 – 298) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -12 (Inf – Inf)
Italy 2838 (2624 – 3035) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -38 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 423 (340 – 499) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -24 (370 – Inf)
Kazakhstan 133 (76 – 188) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 38 (8.2 – Inf)
Kosovo 54 (11 – 87) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.7 – 2) 13 (3.8 – Inf)
Kuwait 120 (69 – 171) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 20 (6.7 – Inf)
Kyrgyzstan 40 (9 – 72) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2) 15 (3.7 – Inf)
Latvia 36 (0 – 64) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.5 – 2.9) 7.3 (2.2 – Inf)
Lebanon 45 (0 – 128) Unsure 2.2 (0.1 – 5) -8.6 (0.87 – Inf)
Lithuania 53 (9 – 90) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 13 (3.9 – Inf)
Luxembourg 43 (13 – 71) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) 140 (6 – Inf)
Malaysia 72 (31 – 112) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 1) -9.4 (55 – Inf)
Mexico 653 (554 – 751) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 47)
Moldova 104 (54 – 153) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -32 (14 – Inf)
Morocco 180 (116 – 231) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 44 (10 – Inf)
Netherlands 903 (795 – 1016) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -65 (73 – Inf)
New Zealand 38 (0 – 81) Unsure 2.2 (0.1 – 4.3) -190 (0.88 – Inf)
Niger 36 (0 – 72) Unsure 1.1 (0.2 – 2) -16 (3.5 – Inf)
Nigeria 83 (42 – 124) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2.1) 7.3 (3.8 – 61)
North Macedonia 57 (5 – 104) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -30 (6 – Inf)
Norway 94 (44 – 145) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 520 (8.5 – Inf)
Oman 136 (89 – 184) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 16 (6.6 – Inf)
Pakistan 574 (483 – 666) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 18 (11 – 67)
Palestine 33 (0 – 58) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.3 – 3.7) 6.5 (1.5 – Inf)
Panama 172 (114 – 223) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 110 (12 – Inf)
Peru 1106 (984 – 1241) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -120 (47 – Inf)
Philippines 188 (127 – 244) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -21 (47 – Inf)
Poland 369 (293 – 436) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 87 (17 – Inf)
Portugal 564 (468 – 650) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 250 (24 – Inf)
Puerto Rico 74 (28 – 112) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 17 (5.1 – Inf)
Qatar 491 (396 – 561) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (8.7 – 33)
Romania 294 (221 – 353) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -36 (42 – Inf)
Russia 5158 (4919 – 5494) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 13 (11 – 16)
Saudi Arabia 1102 (960 – 1213) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 9.8 (7.6 – 14)
Serbia 306 (237 – 372) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -28 (60 – Inf)
Singapore 1054 (922 – 1170) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.6) 8.5 (6.7 – 11)
Slovakia 57 (14 – 92) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 90 (5.9 – Inf)
Somalia 58 (23 – 90) Increasing 1.8 (1 – 2.4) 5.7 (3 – 85)
South Africa 173 (110 – 229) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 19 (7.7 – Inf)
South Korea 28 (0 – 52) Unsure 1.1 (0.2 – 1.9) -12 (3.9 – Inf)
Spain 4123 (3897 – 4373) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -200 (93 – Inf)
Sweden 526 (435 – 604) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 180 (22 – Inf)
Switzerland 251 (180 – 313) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.9) -14 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 42 (10 – 73) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 23 (4.1 – Inf)
Tunisia 26 (0 – 48) Unsure 1 (0.3 – 1.6) -14 (4.5 – Inf)
Turkey 4341 (4097 – 4587) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -790 (83 – Inf)
Ukraine 396 (318 – 466) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -120 (27 – Inf)
United Arab Emirates 461 (368 – 531) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 38 (14 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5019 (4748 – 5288) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -230 (120 – Inf)
United Republic of Tanzania 39 (13 – 64) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.9 – 2.3) 8.1 (3.3 – Inf)
United States of America 30853 (30184 – 31544) Increasing 1 (1 – 1) 87 (58 – 170)
Uruguay 30 (0 – 59) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.7) 14 (2.3 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 83 (34 – 127) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -13 (20 – Inf)

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